Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Israeli Bombardment of Lebanon and Upcoming Nuclear War

The major media outlets seem to be ignoring the consequences of the Israeli bombardment of Lebanon. If the current blitzkrieg or "lightening war" continues the conflict will undoubtedly spread to other nations. This is the nature of warfare, known for centuries from careful study.

Currently a civil war is taking place in US-occupied Iraq. The U.S. supports the Shiite community in Iraq with weapons and military training. Israel supports the Kurdish community in northern Iraq with military training ( New Yorker article). Those activities are now somewhat counter-productive given that Iraqi Shiites support Lebanon's Hizbollah community. This means the United States is indirectly supporting Hizbollah and Israel at the same time. Intelligence analysts in the U.S. and Israel must really be struggling to untie that Gordian knot.

The war will certainly spread to Syria, either through a deliberate provocation from Israel or simply by a Syrian decision to assist a neighboring country. Israeli leaders use every public forum to insist that Syria and Iran support Hizbollah. It is a peculiar fact that so far the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have not begun to attack Syrian or Iranian forces, given all the rhetoric. Apparently Israel's closest ally, the United States, has been able to force that limitation on IDF actions. There can be no other reason why Israel is hesitating to expand the conflict beyond Lebanon.

The United States has threatened to attack Iran using nuclear weapons quite recently. Military observers also know for certain that the IDF possesses nuclear warheads. Israeli politicians and military leaders have made it clear that every weapon in the Israeli arsenal will be used if that nation feels threatened with defeat. When a nuclear war commences it will likely be one of these two nations that initiates the first strike.

The most likely scenario to follow a nuclear strike on Iran is a disruption of all oil shipments out of the Middle East. Every nation dependent on oil from that region could expect to suffer a major economic collapse as a result. Worldwide depression, including famine and an extreme rise in violent criminal activity, is sure to follow.

Other nations will surely become involved should the US, Britain, Australia, and Israel expand the current conflict beyond the borders of Iraq and Lebanon. Nuclear war or conventional warfare will place a tremendous strain on an already fragile world economy. The recent tumble in world markets is a precursor of what would take place if the wars in the Middle East expand.

All the military and intelligence analysts seem to be ignoring another major player in Middle Eastern affairs. Recent arrests, along with bombings in India, Egypt, London, and elsewhere, clearly indicate that international militant organizations remain potent. These well-organized groups are capable of striking anywhere at anytime. They primarily sympathize with suffering Islamic communities, such as those in Palestine, Lebanon, Kashmir, and Iraq. Any additional attacks on Muslim communities will surely result in more bombings in the nations that initiate the violence.

Those who advocate increased military response to perceived threats are advised to take all of the above under consideration. Hasty actions taken today will increase global suffering exponentially and require decades of costly reconstruction. The world community will not quickly forget the source of such calamities. Individual families have already begun to mourn the loss of too many innocent lives in a growing conflict that was not necessary and is only likely to quickly grow out of control.

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